Additive modelling reveals spatiotemporal PCBs trends in marine sediments

Additive modelling reveals spatiotemporal PCBs trends in marine sediments 

marinepollutionbulletinThe environmental fate and toxicity of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are of global concern. Spatiotemporal trend analyses of such hazardous substances are identified as a key priority by the OSPAR commission. In this paper we analyse one of the largest, longest and most complete data sets of PCBs using a regression-based technique in order to compare the levels and time trends of marine and estuarine PCB sediment concentrations between and within the Belgian Coastal Zone (BCZ) and the Western Scheldt estuary. The time trends unraveled a two to three-fold decrease in PCB concentrations in the BCZ during the past 20 years (1991-2010). However, in the Western Scheldt estuary, time trends were spatially heterogeneous and did not exhibit a significant decrease. These results demonstrate that international efforts to reduce PCB emissions have effectively reduced concentrations in open water ecosystems like the BCZ but have not affected urbanized and industrialized areas of the Scheldt estuary. The ten PCB congeners we considered followed the same trend, suggesting that no point sources are present in our study area for these congeners.

 

Scientific abstract

We developed generalised additive mixed models (GAMMs) to infer spatiotemporal trends of environmental PCB concentrations from an extensive dataset (n = 1219) of PCB concentrations measured between 1991 and 2010 in sediments of the Belgian Coastal Zone (BCZ) and the Western Scheldt estuary. A GAMM with time, geographical zone, periodicity and the organic carbon – water partition coefficient as covariates explained 49% of the variability in the log transformed PCB sediment concentrations. The time trends unraveled two to threefold PCB concentration decreases in the BCZ during the last 20 years. However, in the Western Scheldt estuary, time trends were spatially heterogeneous and not significantly decreasing. These results demonstrate that international efforts to cut down emissions of PCBs have been effective to reduce concentrations in open water ecosystems like the BCZ but had little effect in the urbanised and industrialised area of the Scheldt estuary.

 

Full reference

Everaert G, De Laender F, Deneudt K, Roose P, Mees J, Goethals P, Janssen C, 2014. Additive modelling reveals spatiotemporal PCBs trends in marine sediments. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 79(1–2), 47–53. DOI:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.01.002

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